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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 2 at the 82

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:24) 4-M.Dickson punts 57 yards to PIT 25, Center-69-T.Ott. 14-R.McCloud to PIT 31 for 6 yards (57-C.Barton).

The Three Options

GO -1.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth -0.16 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 82, worth -5.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -2.49 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 40, worth -2.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP