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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 7 at the 74

Pittsburgh Steelers 17 – Seattle Seahawks 14

What Actually Happened

(1:31) 6-P.Harvin punts 32 yards to SEA 42, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.75 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.64 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 74, worth -4.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 32, worth -1.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model