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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 17 at the 22

Seattle Seahawks 14 – Pittsburgh Steelers 17

What Actually Happened

(13:04) 5-J.Myers 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +0.70 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.79 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.99 EP
KICK +1.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.62 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model