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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 34

Pittsburgh Steelers 17 – Seattle Seahawks 17

What Actually Happened

(1:35) 9-C.Boswell 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

The Three Options

GO +0.77 EP
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +2.55 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 34, worth -1.12 EP
KICK +1.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 44, worth -1.55 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model