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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Seattle Seahawks
4th & 10 at the 43
Seattle Seahawks 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0
What Actually Happened
(5:08) 4-M.Dickson punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-69-T.Ott, Touchback.
The Three Options
GO
-0.53 EP
Model's Pick
-
35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.43 EP
- 65% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 43, worth -2.62 EP
KICK
-0.99 EP
- 46% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.47 EP
- 54% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.10 EP
PUNT
-0.81 EP
What Happened
- Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.81 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
