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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 65

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(:47) 6-P.Harvin punts 58 yards to SEA 7, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 18-F.Swain to SEA 21 for 14 yards (44-D.Watt).

The Three Options

GO -0.77 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.46 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 65, worth -3.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 23, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model