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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 55

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(9:13) 8-B.Pinion punts 44 yards to PHI 11, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 18-J.Reagor.

The Three Options

GO -0.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.44 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 55, worth -3.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -1.08 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 16, worth -1.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP