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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 70

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21

What Actually Happened

(1:34) 8-A.Siposs punts 39 yards to TB 31, Center-45-R.Lovato. 85-J.Mickens to TB 35 for 4 yards (54-S.Bradley).

The Three Options

GO -1.09 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.78 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 70, worth -3.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 28, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model