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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 6 at the 71

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21

What Actually Happened

(13:42) 8-A.Siposs punts 55 yards to TB 16, Center-45-R.Lovato. 85-J.Mickens pushed ob at TB 21 for 5 yards (54-S.Bradley).

The Three Options

GO -1.46 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.95 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 71, worth -4.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 29, worth -1.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model