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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 67

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(:49) 8-B.Pinion punts 42 yards to PHI 25, Center-46-C.Tinker. 18-J.Reagor to PHI 33 for 8 yards (79-P.O'Connor). PENALTY on PHI-33-J.Scott, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 25.

The Three Options

GO -0.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.13 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 67, worth -3.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.32 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 25, worth -1.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP