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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 68

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14

What Actually Happened

(14:19) 8-A.Siposs punts 47 yards to TB 21, Center-45-R.Lovato. 85-J.Mickens to TB 33 for 12 yards (54-S.Bradley).

The Three Options

GO -0.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.94 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 68, worth -3.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.72 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 26, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model