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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 13 at the 48

New York Giants 5 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(1:01) 9-R.Dixon punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.54 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.13 EP
KICK -0.45 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.19 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 14, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model