Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 77

Carolina Panthers 3 – New York Giants 5

What Actually Happened

(:18) 10-R.Winslow punts 46 yards to NYG 31, Center-44-J.Jansen. 21-J.Peppers to NYG 33 for 2 yards (57-C.Johnston). PENALTY on NYG-30-D.Holmes, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 31.

The Three Options

GO -1.54 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.25 EP
57% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 77, worth -2.89 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model