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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 35

New York Giants 12 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(12:47) 5-G.Gano 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.48 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.68 EP
KICK +0.71 EP
What Happened
  • 70% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.26 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EP