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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 8 at the 26

New York Giants 15 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(5:58) 5-G.Gano 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +0.71 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.61 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26, worth -1.08 EP
KICK +1.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.64 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model