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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 16 at the 81

Carolina Panthers 3 – New York Giants 18

What Actually Happened

(4:58) (Shotgun) 6-P.Walker pass incomplete deep left to 11-R.Anderson.

The Three Options

GO -2.74 EP
What Happened
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.50 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 81, worth -4.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 38, worth -1.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.15 EP