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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 29

Carolina Panthers 3 – New York Giants 25

What Actually Happened

(2:55) (Shotgun) 6-P.Walker sacked at NYG 33 for -4 yards (51-A.Ojulari).

The Three Options

GO +0.63 EP
What Happened
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.20 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 29, worth -1.01 EP
KICK +1.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 39, worth -1.34 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.85 EP