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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 12 at the 48

New York Giants 0 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(5:16) 9-R.Dixon punts 36 yards to CAR 12, Center-58-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 13-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO -0.67 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.78 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.42 EP
KICK -0.61 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.39 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 14, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model