Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 9 at the 87

Carolina Panthers 3 – New York Giants 0

(3:54) 10-R.Winslow punts 28 yards to CAR 41, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-42-S.Franklin.

The Three Options

GO -2.92 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.58 EP
60% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 87, worth -5.26 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model