Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 79

Indianapolis Colts 7 – San Francisco 49ers 12

(7:55) 8-R.Sanchez punts 79 yards to end zone, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -2.03 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.13 EP
56% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 79, worth -4.55 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model