Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 8 at the 78

San Francisco 49ers 12 – Indianapolis Colts 7

(6:49) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 48 yards to IND 30, Center-46-T.Pepper, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.81 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.69 EP
59% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 78, worth -4.29 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model