Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 6 at the 66

Indianapolis Colts 7 – San Francisco 49ers 12

(4:43) 8-R.Sanchez punts 46 yards to SF 20, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 11-B.Aiyuk to SF 20 for no gain (49-M.Adams).

The Three Options

GO -1.23 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.86 EP
55% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.79 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model