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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 49

Indianapolis Colts 13 – San Francisco 49ers 12

What Actually Happened

(11:28) 28-J.Taylor left tackle to SF 46 for 3 yards (1-J.Ward, 26-J.Norman). FUMBLES (26-J.Norman), recovered by IND-16-A.Dulin at SF 46. San Francisco challenged the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1 at 11:22.)

The Three Options

GO +1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.87 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.65 EP
KICK -1.57 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.69 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model