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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 9 at the 45

Indianapolis Colts 13 – San Francisco 49ers 12

What Actually Happened

(8:43) 8-R.Sanchez punts 35 yards to SF 10, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-45-E.Speed.

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.66 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.18 EP
KICK -1.12 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.68 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model