Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 14 at the 59

Indianapolis Colts 20 – San Francisco 49ers 12

(14:28) 8-R.Sanchez punts 42 yards to SF 17, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 6-M.Sanu pushed ob at SF 30 for 13 yards (45-E.Speed).

The Three Options

GO -1.10 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.92 EP
69% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 59, worth -2.91 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model