Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 8 at the 82

Indianapolis Colts 30 – San Francisco 49ers 18

(:19) 8-R.Sanchez punts 37 yards to SF 45, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 11-B.Aiyuk to IND 47 for 8 yards (45-E.Speed).

The Three Options

GO -1.51 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.06 EP
58% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 82, worth -2.68 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model