4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 5 at the 37

San Francisco 49ers 9 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(2:32) 14-J.Slye 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +0.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +4.02 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 37, worth -1.64 EP
KICK +0.17 EP
What Happened
  • 55% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 46, worth -2.40 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP