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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
New York Jets
4th & 1 at the 28
New York Jets 7 – New England Patriots 24
What Actually Happened
(2:00) 25-T.Johnson up the middle to NE 28 for no gain (90-C.Barmore).
The Three Options
GO
+2.00 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +3.89 EP
- 36% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 28, worth -1.32 EP
KICK
+1.14 EP
- 83% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
- 17% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 38, worth -2.04 EP
PUNT
-0.58 EP
- New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.58 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
