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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 35

New England Patriots 24 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(1:10) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 16-J.Meyers ran ob at NYJ 32 for 3 yards (30-M.Carter II).

The Three Options

GO +2.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.62 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 35, worth -1.12 EP
KICK +1.16 EP
  • 70% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.39 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 45, worth -1.79 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model