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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 7 at the 30

New York Jets 0 – New England Patriots 14

What Actually Happened

(1:53) 6-M.Ammendola 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +0.20 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.19 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 30, worth -1.68 EP
KICK +0.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 40, worth -2.36 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model