Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 20 at the 87

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 24

What Actually Happened

(9:12) 8-A.Siposs punts 52 yards to LV 35, Center-45-R.Lovato. 13-H.Renfrow to 50 for 15 yards (19-J.Arcega-Whiteside). PHI-19-J.Arcega-Whiteside was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

The Three Options

GO -3.39 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.56 EP
73% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 87, worth -5.25 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model