Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 10 at the 94

Las Vegas Raiders 30 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

(:22) 6-A.Cole punts 59 yards to PHI 35, Center-47-T.Sieg. 18-J.Reagor ran ob at PHI 41 for 6 yards (45-A.Ingold).

The Three Options

GO -3.17 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.42 EP
61% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 94, worth -5.50 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model