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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 10 at the 44

Las Vegas Raiders 33 – Philadelphia Eagles 22

What Actually Happened

(2:15) 6-A.Cole punts 35 yards to PHI 9, Center-47-T.Sieg, downed by LV-7-Z.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -1.00 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +1.35 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 44, worth -2.18 EP
KICK -0.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.20 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.40 EP
PUNT -1.09 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 12, worth -1.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.44 EP