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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 13 at the 74

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(1:01) 8-A.Siposs punts 46 yards to LV 28, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 13-H.Renfrow.

The Three Options

GO -2.47 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.77 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 74, worth -4.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 32, worth -1.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model