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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 5 at the 50

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(12:44) 3-J.Berry punts 37 yards to DAL 13, Center-42-A.DePaola. 1-C.Wilson to DAL 20 for 7 yards (42-A.DePaola).

The Three Options

GO -0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.96 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 50, worth -2.64 EP
KICK -1.06 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.64 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 14, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP