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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 6 at the 20

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(6:13) 2-G.Zuerlein 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.46 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.85 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 20, worth -0.77 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30, worth -1.43 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model