4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 12 at the 26

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(1:49) 1-G.Joseph 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +0.70 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.90 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26, worth -0.94 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 36, worth -1.41 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model