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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 10 at the 65

Dallas Cowboys 3 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(:43) 5-B.Anger punts 50 yards to MIN 15, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 17-K.Osborn.

The Three Options

GO -1.53 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.47 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 65, worth -3.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 23, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model