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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 18 at the 92

Dallas Cowboys 10 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(9:42) 5-B.Anger punts 54 yards to MIN 38, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 17-K.Osborn pushed ob at MIN 45 for 7 yards (20-T.Pollard).

The Three Options

GO -3.51 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.86 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 92, worth -5.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

PUNT -2.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 50, worth -2.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model