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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 6 at the 70

Minnesota Vikings 13 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(2:21) 3-J.Berry punts 39 yards to DAL 31, Center-42-A.DePaola. 88-C.Lamb to DAL 28 for -3 yards (44-J.Metellus).

The Three Options

GO -1.14 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +2.09 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 70, worth -3.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 28, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model