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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 8 at the 21

Dallas Cowboys 10 – Minnesota Vikings 13

What Actually Happened

(:08) 2-G.Zuerlein 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.09 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.95 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -1.00 EP
KICK +1.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 31, worth -1.70 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model