Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 19 at the 61

Minnesota Vikings 13 – Dallas Cowboys 13

(9:13) 3-J.Berry punts 29 yards to DAL 32, Center-42-A.DePaola, downed by MIN-44-J.Metellus.

The Three Options

GO -1.60 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.92 EP
74% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 61, worth -3.16 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model