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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 9 at the 67

Dallas Cowboys 13 – Minnesota Vikings 13

What Actually Happened

(8:15) 5-B.Anger punts 41 yards to MIN 26, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 17-K.Osborn.

The Three Options

GO -1.62 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.72 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 67, worth -3.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 25, worth -1.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model