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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 7 at the 49

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(3:59) 3-J.Berry punts 44 yards to DAL 5, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.15 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.63 EP
KICK -0.93 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.64 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 14, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model