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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 13 at the 13

Seattle Seahawks 14 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(:10) 5-J.Myers 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.92 EP
  • 28% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.90 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 13, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +2.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.96 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 23, worth -0.04 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model