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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 38

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Seattle Seahawks 17

What Actually Happened

(11:55) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short middle to 10-L.Shenault.

The Three Options

GO +0.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.74 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 38, worth -2.20 EP
KICK -0.16 EP
  • 58% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 47, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model