Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 16 at the 72

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Seattle Seahawks 24

(8:20) 9-L.Cooke punts 41 yards to SEA 31, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 18-F.Swain.

The Three Options

GO -2.40 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.13 EP
71% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 72, worth -4.23 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model