Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 16 at the 75

Seattle Seahawks 24 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

(6:46) 4-M.Dickson punts 59 yards to JAX 16, Center-69-T.Ott. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 20 for 4 yards (89-W.Dissly).

The Three Options

GO -2.29 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.75 EP
68% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 75, worth -4.18 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model