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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Seattle Seahawks
4th & 1 at the 1
Seattle Seahawks 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0
What Actually Happened
(4:22) 7-G.Smith up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+4.40 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
68% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.24 EP
- 32% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 1, worth +0.59 EP
KICK
+2.26 EP
- 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
- 1% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -0.49 EP
PUNT
+0.14 EP
- Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
