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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 2 at the 76

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(2:53) 9-L.Cooke punts 51 yards to SEA 25, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 18-F.Swain.

The Three Options

GO -1.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.37 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 76, worth -4.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -2.13 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 34, worth -2.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP